United Nations Framework Convention Research Articles

Fact and Fiction in the Dubai cop’s Decision on Fossil Fuels

Abstract The flagship decision of the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, issued on 13 December 2023, appears to call for the elimination of fossil fuels. This would be a first in the annals of the international legal regime on climate change. In reality, I argue, while the decision acknowledges that the world must move away from fossil fuels, it concedes that there is no known practical way of doing so. The combined effect of these positions is the same as the understanding which states had settled on prior to the Dubai conference, namely that each state would work at its own self-determined pace to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets

Many economies set climate mitigation targets for 2020 at the 2009 15th Conference of the Parties conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Yet no retrospective review of the implementation and actual mitigation associated with these targets has materialized. Here we track the national CO2 emissions from both territory and consumption (trade adjusted) perspectives to assess socioeconomic factors affecting changes in emissions. Among the 34 countries analysed, 12 failed to meet their targets (among them Portugal, Spain and Japan) and 7 achieved the target for territorial emissions, albeit with carbon leakage through international trade to meet domestic demand while increasing emissions in other countries. Key factors in meeting targets were intensity reduction of energy and the improvement of the energy mix. However, many countries efforts fell short of their latest nationally determined contributions. Timely tracking and review of mitigation efforts are critical for meeting the Paris Agreement targets.

Domestic and international aviation emission inventories for the UNFCCC parties

Global aviation emissions have been growing despite international efforts to limit climate change. Quantifying the status quo of domestic and international aviation emissions is necessary for establishing an understanding of current emissions and their mitigation. Yet, a majority of the United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC)-ratifying parties have infrequently disclosed aviation emissions within the international framework, if at all. Here, we present a set of national aviation emission and fuel burn inventories for these 197 individual parties, as calculated by the high-resolution aviation transport emissions assessment model (AviTeam) model. In addition to CO2 emissions, the AviTeam model calculates pollutant emissions, including NOx, SOx, unburnt hydrocarbons, black carbon, and organic carbon. Emission inventories are created in aggregated and gridded format and rely on Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast combined with schedule data. The cumulative global fuel burn is estimated at 291 Tg for the year 2019. This corresponds to CO2 emissions of 920 Tg, with 306 Tg originating from domestic aviation. We present emissions from 151 countries that have yet to report their emissions for 2019, which sum to 417 TgCO2. The improved availability of national emissions data facilitated by this inventory could support mitigation efforts in developed and developing countries and shows that such tools could bolster sector reporting to the UNFCCC.

Post-Paris agreement negotiations: A commitment to multilateralism despite the lack of funding

This paper identifies which topics of negotiation are providing momentum for climate negotiations after the Paris Agreement and to what extent. To do so, it examines the main requests that developing countries have expressed through different negotiation groups between 2017 and 2023. To measure the progression of climate negotiations, the paper identifies whether those requests have been translated into COP decisions. This is done through discourse analysis contained in numerous daily reports of COPs, summaries, and official decisions. In this research, COP decisions are defined as the expression of collective negotiations in the UNFCCC system, and as decisions with political consequences. The paper identifies advancements on twenty-nine issues in areas like gender, loss and damage, facilitative dialogue, adaptation, and the acceleration of finance flows to small-island developing states. Eighteen issues have been identified as acknowledged in COP decisions, but not fully addressed. These correspond mainly to finance-related items and the commitment to contributing US$100 billion to climate mitigation. Sixteen issues have been identified as ignored in the COP decisions examined. The conclusions suggest that there is agreement on creating new frameworks to allow further discussions on important topics brought to the table by developing states, but there is no real agreement on increasing funding in a significant way. Also, conclusions underline that despite the lack of sufficient funding, commitment to fighting climate change has not declined over time, and states continue to prefer multilateral negotiations to working outside the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandate.

Unlocking climate finance for social protection: an analysis of the Green Climate Fund

ABSTRACT Social protection has gained increasing attention in global climate policy due to its potential to contribute to low-carbon, just and climate-resilient development. Unlocking climate finance for social protection is critical to realize this potential. Multilateral climate funds established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can play a particularly important role by financing social sectors where private investments are not attractive. Yet, there is a distinct policy and research gap in understanding the potential and limitations of the UNFCCC financial mechanisms to support social protection in low- and middle-income countries. Taking as a case study the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which is the largest multilateral fund under the financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, we seek to address this gap. First, the study introduces a framework for analysis of the ways climate finance engages with social protection by looking into a comprehensive set of formal social services and transfers provided by the state to individuals, households, and on a collective basis. Second, the study identifies a continuum of entry points for integrating social protection into the GCF’s project portfolio and offers a holistic perspective by capturing climate change mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. We find that social protection can be instrumental in the design and implementation of GCF projects. In addition, our analysis reveals that the GCF has the potential to support projects that create enabling conditions for integrating climate change considerations into national social protection systems, and that aim at piloting or establishing long-term social protection mechanisms with climate change objectives.

Numerical Analysis of the Co-firing Combustion of Coal and Palm Shell Kernel In Stoker Boiler

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states that Indonesia is committed to contributing to global climate change solutions. The government will also continue to encourage the development of a number of renewable energy (EBT)-based power generation projects. This is based on the use of renewable energy which is still low, namely around (1.9%) 8215.5 MW. Meanwhile, the potential for EBT to become energy can be around 443,208 MW. One source of EBT in Indonesia that can be utilized is Biomass. Co-firing of biomass is a relatively cheaper option and does not require investment in new power plants. However, Co-firing combustion has several aspects that need to be studied, such as temperature combustion and the generation of gas emissions. Therefore, this study aims to determine the temperature and the emissions resulting from co-firing of palm kernel shell biomass. This research was conducted using the Computational Fluid Dynamics method on stoker boiler model. The test parameters of the research was the maximum and average temperatures in the furnace, and the average and maximum fractions of CO2, SO2 in the stoker boiler furnace. From the research conducted, it was found that the resulting combustion temperature decreased as the co-firing fraction of the biomass increased. However, CO2 gas emissions increased and SO2 decreased with increasing fraction of co-firing biomass which showed a decrease in harmful gas emissions and complete combustion that occurred in the furnace.

External power dynamics and international climate governance in a crises-constrained world

ABSTRACT This paper explores equity in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations during a time of multiple overlapping global crises. Drawing on a combination of semi-structured interviews and a roundtable with key negotiators and observers engaged in the UNFCCC process during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as a collaborative ethnographic study and social media analysis on the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27), we find that inequities within the UNFCCC process reflect the broader social and geopolitical inequities at international and intranational levels. Multiple intersecting crises reinforce and compound these inequities for particularly marginalized and vulnerable groups and slow progress in tackling climate change in an equitable manner. Applying a critical climate justice lens, we show that in order for the climate negotiations to be resilient to global crises, the process needs to go beyond a surface-level attempt at achieving justice through representation and move towards a more active shifting of power to poor and climate-vulnerable countries and populations.

Energy Diplomacy in the Era of Energy Transition

The development of international relations after the 1973 oil crisis was accompanied by the emergence of such phenomena and concepts as global and regional energy security, energy security of states, foreign energy policy and energy diplomacy. Institutionalization and development of mechanisms ensuring energy security – including global energy security – occurred and continues to occur under the conditions of dominance of hydrocarbon fossil fuels in the world energy balance, as well as in the context of energy consumption worldwide. The priorities of its provision at the global, regional and state levels were and are the security of demand, supply and transit of hydrocarbon raw materials, and the diversification of energy sources. After signing the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, efforts are being made to accelerate the low-carbon transformation of the world economy and the pace of the global energy transition. This involves mechanisms for responsible investment, carbon regulation, greenhouse gas emissions management (climate management); uses a variety of socially significant interpretations of ongoing climate change. These processes are increasingly determining the foreign energy policy of states, international energy diplomacy and influencing the previously formed mechanisms for ensuring energy security. The article is aimed at generalization and systematization of the ongoing changes in the activities of both traditional international centers and institutes of global energy policy, and relatively new international platforms in the subject area under consideration, primarily the Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and their impact on energy policy and energy diplomacy.

Learning from climate change news: Is the world on the same page?

Climate change challenges countries around the world, and news media are key to the public's awareness and perception of it. But how are news media approaching climate change across countries? With the problem of climate change and its solution being global, it is key to determine whether differences in climate change news reports exist and what they are across countries. This study employs supervised machine learning to uncover topical and terminological differences between newspaper articles on climate change. An original dataset of climate change articles is presented, originating from 7 newspapers and 3 countries across the world, and published in English during 26 Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Three aspects are used to discriminate between articles, being (1) countries, (2) political orientations, and (3) COP meetings. Our results reveal differences with regard to how newspaper articles approach climate change globally. Specifically, climate change-related terminology of left-oriented newspapers is more prevalent compared to their right-oriented counterparts. Also, over the years, newspapers' climate change-related terminology has evolved to convey a greater sense of urgency.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 28th Conference of the Parties, Dubai (COP28): Implications for lung disease.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 28th Conference of the Parties, Dubai (COP28): Implications for lung disease.

Prospects for the development of legal regulation of Green Recovery in Ukraine

Ukraine has committed itself to developing and implementing long-term measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As a party to the Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the state is obliged to make its nationally determined contribution to achieve the goals of sustainable low-carbon development of all sectors of the economy and increase the ability to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. The official announcement of joining the European Green Deal demonstrates Ukraine’s unwavering intention to overcome the challenges posed by climate change and environmental degradation by transforming into a modern resource-efficient and competitive economy. In June 2022, Ukraine was granted the status of a candidate for EU membership. These measures should be implemented despite Russia’s anti-Ukrainian armed aggression and difficult economic challenges.
 The purpose of this work is to determine the main directions of development of the legal mechanism for preventing climate change, which is being formed in the context of military realities, while ensuring that Ukraine strictly complies with its obligations under the European Green Deal.
 It is concluded that when developing the conceptual legal framework of the environmental security component as part of the Strategy for Post-War Recovery and Development of Ukraine and the relevant Action Plan, as well as sectoral programs for the restoration of the State, an appropriate climate policy should be formulated, coordinated with Ukraine’s further European integration.
 These include updated priority measures of the national climate policy, broad state support for environmental protection measures; digitalization of environmental relations; provision of funding for measures and investments aimed at developing competitive renewable generation and improving existing infrastructure, developing the potential of the hydrogen ecosystem, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings through the integration of renewable energy sources, decarbonizing insulation and cooling of buildings, ensuring the development of transport with low.

Increased deadwood carbon stocks through planted forestry practices: insights from a Forest Inventory Survey in Japan

Deadwood, a vital component of forest ecosystems, constitutes a quintessential carbon reservoir that must be disclosed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This reservoir, comprising fallen logs, snags, and stumps, markedly affects carbon dynamics over decades. In this study, deadwood carbon stocks were quantified using data from 2674 sites in Japan surveyed between 2011 and 2015 via the National Forest Soil Carbon Inventory, and the deadwood carbon attributes in the country were explored. Deadwood were surveyed using the line intersect method for fallen logs and the belt transect method for stumps and snags. In Japan, the deadwood carbon stock (measured in t-C/ha) was quantified at 7.5 ± 9.74 (mean ± SD), with fallen logs at 3.26 ± 4.43, stumps at 2.45 ± 5.69, and snags at 1.80 ± 5.27, with significant differences detected among these stocks (p < .001). Considering deadwood carbon accumulation in Japan, planted forests exhibited a significantly larger (p < .001) deadwood carbon stock than natural forests. Moreover, planted forests exhibited a higher proportion of fallen logs than snags and stumps, indicating the effects associated with logs left on forest floors after thinning. Based on these findings, deadwood carbon stocks have the potential to bolster the validation and refinement of computational models used in carbon accounting.

How to track progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation?: a stocktaking of Parties’ positions on measurement one year into the GlaSS work programme

ABSTRACT In 2021, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change initiated a two-year work programme that, in part, would work to determine how to assess progress in achieving the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the GGA aims to “enhance[e] adaptive capacity, [strengthen] resilience, and reduc[e] vulnerability to climate change.” One possible outcome of the “GlaSS” work programme is the production of a set of global metrics for adaptation. As scholarship on measurement reveals, however, there are many shortcomings to indicator frameworks, and existing sets of global goals, such as the Sustainable Development Goals, have proven ineffective in producing substantive change. As the inception of institutional architectures is a critical moment in understanding their effects, this study takes stock of the GlaSS at its halfway point. While “developing” and “developed” countries diverge in their preferences for metrics, they converge in their desire for the metrics to be scientifically-grounded and based on existing models and data. These countries’ differences reflect the broader politics of accountability and challenges of consensus in climate change governance. Their similarities risk reproducing problematic measurement practices critiqued in the literature. At stake is effective adaptation in the world’s most vulnerable communities.

The inclusion of Amazon mangroves in Brazil’s REDD+ program

The Legal Amazon of Brazil holds vast mangrove forests, but a lack of awareness of their value has prevented their inclusion into results-based payments established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Based on an inventory from over 190 forest plots in Amazon mangroves, we estimate total ecosystem carbon stocks of 468 ± 67 Megagrams (Mg) ha−1; which are significantly higher than Brazilian upland biomes currently included into national carbon offset financing. Conversion of mangroves results in potential emissions of 1228 Mg CO2e ha−1, which are 3-fold higher than land use emissions from conversion of the Amazon rainforest. Our work provides the foundation for the inclusion of mangroves in Brazil’s intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and here we show that halting mangrove deforestation in the Legal Amazon would generate avoided emissions of 0.9 ± 0.3 Teragrams (Tg) CO2e yr−1; which is equivalent to the annual carbon accumulation in 82,400 ha of secondary forests.

Conflict considerations in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s National Adaptation Plans

ABSTRACT Many places affected by violent conflict are also those with the lowest capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change and, therefore, some the most vulnerable. Consequently, it is here where climate change most likely results in social tensions that could escalate into or sustain conflicts. This double burden of compounding conflict and climate risks suggests an urgent need for climate adaptation interventions. However, so far adaptation agendas are often poorly aligned with those reducing conflict risk. Seeking to overcome this gap, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process has been highlighted as an important opportunity to align adaptation and peacebuilding agendas. Based on qualitative analysis of the ten least peaceful countries’ NAPs (submitted by November 2022), and developing a novel analytical framework on climate, conflict and adaptation interactions, the paper examines whether and to what extent countries bring conflict considerations into their NAPs, and account for interactions between climate change, conflict and adaptation. Findings suggest that by and large, conflict considerations are not systematically brought into adaptation planning – an omission that might ultimately prove irresponsible, highly costly and dangerous. The paper concludes with recommendations that countries faced by the double-burden of climate change and fragility, and international actors supporting them in their NAP process, could employ.

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL WITH INVENTORY- AND SELLING PRICE-DEPENDENT DEMANDS CONSIDERING ALL-UNITS DISCOUNT AND CARBON EMISSION

Customer satisfaction is a crucial aspect that consistently takes center stage in business operations. In light of this, companies must devise appropriate strategies to fulfill customer demands. Consequently, this study delves into examining various factors that facilitate the supply process, including the application of discounts. Moreover, in line with the advancements in eco-green concepts, businesses have begun considering carbon emission factors concerning storage and distribution, which is further supported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In this context, the paper presents an enhanced version of the economic order quantity model encompassing all-unit discount and carbon emission factors. The developed model entail inventory management approaches where demand relies on inventory levels, inventory levels coupled with selling prices, time-dependent demand, and exponentially declining demand patterns. The primary objective is to aid companies in optimizing their inventory management by determining the optimal quantity of goods while minimizing overall costs. Sensitivity analysis conducted to observe the influence on the reorder point (T), total inventory cost (TC), and total carbon emission (TE) reveals that lower unit purchase prices, driven by high demand, correspond to larger order quantities. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the higher average carbon emission within warehouses result in increased carbon emissions overall.

European CH4 inversions with ICON-ART coupled to the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell

Abstract. We present the first application of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model with Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ICON-ART) in inverse modeling in inverse modeling of greenhouse gas fluxes with an ensemble Kalman smoother. For this purpose, we extended ICON-ART to efficiently handle gridded emissions, generate an ensemble of perturbed emissions during runtime and use nudging on selected variables to keep the simulations close to analyzed meteorology. We show that the system can optimize total and anthropogenic European CH4 fluxes on a national scale in an idealized setup using pseudo-observations from a realistic network of measurement stations. However, we were unable to constrain the sum of the natural emission sources of comparatively low magnitude. Also regions with low emissions and regions with low observational coverage could not be optimized individually for lack of observational constraints. Furthermore, we investigated the sensitivities towards different inversion parameters and design choices with 15 sensitivity runs using the same idealized setup, demonstrating the robustness of the approach when regarding some minimal requirements of the setup (e.g., number of ensemble members). Subsequently, we applied the system to real in situ observations from 28 European stations for three years, 2008, 2013 and 2018. We used a priori anthropogenic fluxes from the EDGARv6 inventory and a priori natural fluxes from peatlands and mineral soils, inland waters, the ocean, biofuels and biomass burning, and geology. Our results for the year 2018 indicate that anthropogenic emissions may be underestimated in EDGARv6 by ca. 25 % in the Benelux countries and, to a smaller degree, in northwestern France and southern England. In the rest of the domain, anthropogenic fluxes are corrected downwards by the inversion, suggesting an overestimation in the a priori. For most countries, this means that the a posteriori country-total anthropogenic emissions are closer to the values reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) than the a priori emissions from EDGARv6. Aggregating the a posteriori emissions across the EU27 + UK results in a total of 17.4 Tg yr−1, while the a priori emissions were 19.9 Tg yr−1. Our a posteriori is close to the total reported to the UNFCCC of 17.8 Tg yr−1. Natural emissions are reduced from their a priori magnitude almost everywhere, especially over Italy and Romania–Moldova, where a priori geological emissions are high, and over the United Kingdom and Scandinavia, where emissions from peatlands and wetlands were possibly unusually low during the hot and dry summer of 2018. Our a posteriori anthropogenic emissions for the EU27 + UK fall within the range estimated by global top-down studies but are lower than most other regional inversions. However, many of these studies have used observations from different measurement stations or satellite observations. The spatial pattern of the emission increments in our results, especially the increase in the Benelux countries, also agrees well with other regional inversions.

Insights intended to improve adaptation planning and reduce vulnerability at the local scale

We live in a world of constant change, where multiple factors that generate vulnerability coincide, such as pandemics, climate change, and globalization, among other political and societal concerns. This demands the development of approaches capable of dealing with diverse sources of vulnerability and strategies that enable us to plan for and mitigate harm in the face of uncertainty. Our paper shows that the interpretation and conception that one gives to vulnerability in climate change can influence how decision-making solutions and adaptation measures are proposed and adopted. In this context, our approach integrates contextual vulnerability and decision-making planning tools to bolster the capacity to adapt at a local scale. We link our analysis to the evolution of vulnerability in climate change studies and some core articles and decisions on climate change adaptation and capacity building under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Conference of Parties throughout this study.

Protecting Future Generations Through Minilateralism: Climate Clubs and Normative Legitimacy

Despite three decades of global climate negotiations and high expectations for the 2015 Paris Agreement, global emissions continue to grow. To protect future generations from severe harm, scholars, environmentalists, and politicians alike explore potential supplements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change process. One potential supplement is climate clubs of a type where a small number of “enthusiastic” countries embark on ambitious mitigation efforts while encouraging other, more “reluctant” countries to join. Previous research has shown that this club type possesses a significant potential for expanding membership and eventually becoming highly effective in reducing global emissions. A common criticism of climate clubs, however, is that they lack legitimacy. Assessing this criticism, we argue that climate clubs of the type considered here can be normatively legitimate. The main challenge for normative legitimacy concerns climate clubs’ use of incentives, particularly negative incentives, to attract members. However, we argue that even negative incentives for participation can be legitimate, assuming they meet a set of relevant legitimacy criteria—including that the club respects human rights, provides a comparative benefit, maintains institutional integrity, implements only proportional incentives, and fulfills a requisite set of epistemic criteria. We also argue that the normative legitimacy of climate clubs’ use of incentives for compliance is less challenging than the normative legitimacy of their use of incentives for participation.

UNFCCC: A Feminist Perspective

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was the only multilateral environmental agreement to emerge from the Earth Summit in 1992 which did not include any references to gender. Recognition of gender within the UNFCCC has been exceedingly slow and largely tokenistic with a focus on ensuring ‘gender balance’ within UNFCCC meetings and processes. This article explores the emergence of gender language within the UNFCCC by reflecting upon: where we have come from; where we are now; and where we are going with respect with gender. While there was very little progress in the early days of the UNFCCC, this article shows that from 2001 onwards there have been a series of small gains, which will be explained and critique. Much work remains to be done with this paper suggesting some concrete steps such as hosting a Gender COP, ensuring financing for National Climate Change Gender Focal Points and embedding gender meaningfully within existing climate finance processes. In recommending future actions, the paper draws on insights from the Pacific and Australian experience.